高端化持续推进，盈利弹性亟待兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 107.74 CNY, corresponding to a PE of 28 for 2024 [5][7]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 33.937 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.49%, while the beer sales volume was 8.01 million tons, down 0.81% year-on-year, indicating a price increase of 6.25% per ton [2][3]. - The company's main brand sales increased by 2.7% to 4.56 million tons, with mid-to-high-end products seeing a significant growth of 10.5%, now accounting for 71.05% of main brand sales [3]. - Cost improvements, particularly in barley prices, are expected to enhance profit margins, with a projected increase in gross margin by at least 1.29 percentage points if barley prices return to pre-anti-dumping levels [4]. Financial Summary - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 5.249 billion CNY, 6.246 billion CNY, and 7.120 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 16 [5][6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 38.66% in 2023, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 12.81%, up 0.98 percentage points [4][10]. - The financial data indicates a steady growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates projected at 5% for 2024 and 4% for 2025 and 2026 [6][10].