Soochow Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.624 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.3% to 4.809 billion yuan, slightly below expectations [3][4] - The company is undergoing a leadership transition with a veteran taking over as CEO, which is expected to lead to a stable transition and new development phase for the company [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 98.624 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.51%. The operating profit margin (OPM) increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.26% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.85 percentage points to 37.15% in 2023, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.85 percentage points to 4.88% [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 17.8% to 4.17 billion yuan, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 30% to 40% [3] Product Performance Summary - The company experienced a product structure upgrade, with liquid milk and ice cream showing better performance than the industry average. Liquid milk revenue grew by 4.86% year-on-year [3] - The company expects the revenue growth of its premium products to continue, with low-temperature products performing better than the industry average [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 101.1 billion yuan, 105.6 billion yuan, and 110.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 4%, and 5% respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 5.6 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4]