Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Minsheng Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 33.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.268 billion yuan, up 15.02% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend totaling approximately 2.73 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 63.9%, significantly higher than the previous year's 47.8% [2] - Despite a slight decline in sales volume of 0.8% year-on-year to 8.007 million kiloliters, the company saw a strong performance in ton price, which increased by 6.3% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 38.7% in 2023, driven by a significant increase in ton price [2] - The report forecasts operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 35.396 billion, 36.850 billion, and 38.279 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.1%, and 3.9% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 4.268 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.0% [6] - The company’s operating costs were 20.817 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 38.66% [6] - The report projects net profits of 5.031 billion, 5.744 billion, and 6.458 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 17.9%, 14.2%, and 12.4% [6] Market Dynamics - The beer industry is currently in a favorable competitive phase, with significant room for high-end product development [2] - The report highlights that the demand for products priced between 8-10 yuan remains strong, indicating a positive market outlook for the company’s flagship products [2] Cost Structure - The company’s ton cost increased by 3.3% year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices and structural optimization [2] - The report anticipates that the cancellation of anti-dumping policies on Australian malt will benefit malt procurement prices in 2024 [2]