中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】先进产业研究冯胜：政策、技术双重拐点，低空经济有望迎来产业爆发期——低空经济系列研究（一）

Group 1: Low Altitude Economy - The report highlights that the low altitude economy is emerging as a new economic sector characterized by innovation, high quality, and large scale, aligning with the national direction of new productive forces [3][4] - The eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft is expected to become the primary vehicle in low altitude scenarios due to its low operational requirements, green technology, low power consumption, and low noise [3][4] - The report outlines a clear policy evolution from strict regulation to encouragement, with significant legislative developments in 2023 and 2024 that support the growth of the low altitude economy [3][4] Group 2: eVTOL Technology Advancements - The report discusses advancements in eVTOL aircraft design, noting that modern configurations such as tilt-wing and compound-wing significantly improve energy efficiency compared to older designs [4] - Battery technology for eVTOL has improved, with current lithium batteries achieving energy densities of 300 wh/kg, and new technologies potentially reaching 500 wh/kg, enhancing flight duration capabilities [4] - The power systems of eVTOLs have also seen upgrades, with current systems achieving power densities of 10 kw/kg, which is a significant improvement over previous fuel systems [4] Group 3: Market Potential and Economic Impact - The low altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with the eVTOL market expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching 10,500 units by 2035 [4] - The report estimates that the capital recovery period for eVTOL routes, such as the Shenzhen-Zhuhai route, could be as short as 1.99 years, indicating strong economic viability [4] - The report emphasizes that eVTOLs have the potential to replicate the success of China's electric vehicle industry, leveraging the country's robust lithium battery supply chain [4] Group 4: Engineering Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is currently in a down cycle, with excavator sales being a key indicator for recovery, showing a need for close monitoring of sales and performance of major manufacturers [2][3] - The report forecasts that excavator sales in 2024 could range between 176,000 to 215,000 units, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2][3] - The domestic excavator market is expected to reach a turning point, with a theoretical natural replacement demand projected to increase significantly in the coming years [3]