Guoxin Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for CITIC Securities (600030.SH) is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - In 2023, CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 60.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.721 billion yuan, down 7.49% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 1.30 yuan, a decline of 8.45% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the cyclical impact on brokerage and investment banking businesses, with other business segments also experiencing a downturn except for investment operations [1] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout to 4.75 yuan per 10 shares, which represents 36.67% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from 2022 [1] - Investment income rose by 23.87% year-on-year to 21.846 billion yuan, driven by a favorable fixed income market and a shift towards FICC client business [1] - The investment banking revenue fell by nearly 30% to 6.293 billion yuan due to a slowdown in IPO activity, with expectations of further contraction in IPO scale under stringent regulatory conditions [1] - Brokerage and credit businesses faced pressure, with brokerage revenue down 8.47% to 10.223 billion yuan and credit business revenue down 30.60% to 4.029 billion yuan [1] - The company is enhancing its overseas business and wealth management services, with a focus on integrated operations across domestic and international markets [1] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 22.672 billion yuan, 24.895 billion yuan, and 26.727 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.0%, 9.8%, and 7.4% [1][2] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.8, 11.7, and 10.9, while the PB ratios are 1.1 for all three years [1][2] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve slightly from 7.6% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2026 [2][8]