KUNLUN ENERGY(00135) 国泰君安·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Kunlun Energy with a target price of HKD 8.45 [2] Core Views - Kunlun Energy's 2023 performance met expectations with stable retail price spreads and a focus on shareholder returns through a three-year dividend plan [2] - The company aims for growth in 2024 with rapid expansion in value-added services [2] - Kunlun Energy's retail gas price spread met expectations at RMB 0.501 per cubic meter, with LNG terminal utilization rate significantly improving to 90.6% in 2023 [2] - The company announced a three-year dividend plan, aiming to increase the payout ratio from 40% to 45% by 2025 [2] - Kunlun Energy's 2024 operational targets include a 10% YoY increase in natural gas retail volume and a 7% YoY increase in LNG plant processing volume [2] - Value-added services showed strong growth, with e-commerce platform sales reaching RMB 74.65 million, a 366% YoY increase, and gas appliance sales reaching 45,900 units, a 58.8% YoY increase [2] Financial Summary - Kunlun Energy's 2023 revenue was RMB 177.35 billion, a 3.1% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.682 billion, an 8.7% YoY increase [3] - Natural gas sales revenue reached RMB 140.6 billion, a 6.6% YoY increase, with pre-tax profit of RMB 8.32 billion, a 6.3% YoY increase [3] - LNG business revenue was RMB 9.04 billion, a 5.9% YoY increase, with pre-tax profit of RMB 3.65 billion, a 15.6% YoY increase [3] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts were adjusted to RMB 0.74, RMB 0.78, and RMB 0.85, respectively [3] Comparable Company Valuation - Kunlun Energy's 2024E PE ratio is 8.46x, lower than the industry average of 9.25x [4] - The company's 2024E EPS is forecasted at RMB 0.74, with a target price of HKD 8.45 based on a 10.5x PE ratio [4]