Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Soochow Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 33.94 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan (yoy +15.0%) [2][3] - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies, with a significant increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products, leading to an overall price increase [3] - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions in 2024, with a projected increase in gross margin due to lower barley prices and packaging costs [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 33.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.0 yuan per share, with a total dividend payout of 2.73 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 64% [2] - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 38.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 3.13 yuan, with projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 3.70 yuan, 4.20 yuan, and 4.72 yuan respectively [2][4] Market and Strategic Insights - The company sold 8.007 million kiloliters in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, but high-end product sales increased by 10.6% [3] - The company is implementing a product mix strategy to enhance brand value and market presence [3] - The company’s market share in Shandong province remains strong, accounting for 68.5% of its revenue [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5.05 billion yuan, 5.73 billion yuan, and 6.43 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 13%, and 12% [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23, 20, and 18 times respectively [4]