业绩同比大幅减亏 国际航线恢复可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company has significantly reduced its losses in 2023, with a net profit of -4.21 billion RMB, an improvement of 28.47 billion RMB year-on-year [2][3]. - The recovery of international routes is expected, with projections indicating a return to approximately 80% of 2019 levels by the end of 2024 [3]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in revenue, achieving 159.93 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 83.7% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 159.93 billion RMB, up from 87.06 billion RMB in 2022, marking an 83.7% increase [7]. - The net profit for 2023 was -4.21 billion RMB, a significant improvement from -32.68 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 284.7 billion RMB [7]. - The company's operating revenue in Q4 2023 reached 40.44 billion RMB, a 139.3% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year [2]. Operational Metrics - The company's Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 105.6% in 2023, recovering to 92% of 2019 levels, with domestic routes exceeding 113% of 2019 levels [3]. - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) grew by 141.9%, reaching 87% of 2019 levels, with domestic routes recovering to 106% [3]. - The passenger load factor improved by 11.7 percentage points to 78.1%, narrowing the gap to 4.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [3]. Cost and Profitability Metrics - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased to 0.46 RMB, down 32% year-on-year, although it remains 17% higher than in 2019 [3]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 7.7%, only 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019 [3]. - The net profit margin improved to -2.6%, a 34.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to deliver 82 new aircraft in 2024 while retiring 40, resulting in a fleet size of 948 aircraft by year-end [3]. - The forecast for net profit is adjusted to 9.6 billion RMB for 2024 and 13.8 billion RMB for 2025, with a new estimate of 16.2 billion RMB for 2026 [3].