Investment Rating - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK) [20][24][26] Core Insights - Keymed Biosciences reported a revenue of 354 million yuan in 2023, primarily from AstraZeneca's licensing agreement. R&D expenses were 596 million yuan, up 17.5%, while administrative expenses rose by 32.1% to 177 million yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -359 million yuan, compared to a profit of 308 million yuan in 2022. As of December 31, 2023, the company's cash position totaled 2.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 460 million yuan from the previous year [17][24][25] - The core product CM310 (IL-4Ra) is on track for commercial launch in 2024, having received NDA acceptance and priority review. The company is preparing for high-quality production and building a commercialization team, aiming to expand from 30+ personnel to 200-300 by the end of 2024 [18][25] - CM310 is progressing in expanding its applicable age and indications, with five indications in the registrational clinical stage. The Phase III trial for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps has reached its primary endpoint, and the company expects to submit an NDA in 2024 [18][25] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 113 million yuan and 515 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -68% and +358%. The expected net profit for the same years is projected at -1.062 billion yuan and -959 million yuan [20][26] - The target price has been adjusted to 68.44 HKD per share, down from 77.52 HKD, using a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [20][26]
CM310上市前准备有序推进，新技术平台管线进展积极