Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 12.80, indicating a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of HKD 10.32 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations after excluding impairment impacts, with a net profit of RMB 4.35 billion for the last year, down 67% year-on-year, aligning with the earnings forecast [1][2]. - The production cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, reaching RMB 54,000 per ton in Q4, with expectations for further reductions as production ramps up [1][2]. - Demand for polysilicon is expected to exceed forecasts, potentially stabilizing prices at a higher bottom level, with an anticipated average selling price of around RMB 60,000 per ton from 2024 to 2026 [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 30.75 billion in 2023, a decline of 18.1% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of RMB 27.68 billion for 2024 [4][9]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.35 billion, a significant drop of 67.6% compared to the previous year, with forecasts of RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.25 billion, and RMB 2.79 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][9]. - The company plans to increase its polysilicon production capacity to 280,000 to 300,000 tons in 2024, with no new capacity additions planned for the near term [1][2]. Production and Sales Metrics - The company achieved a polysilicon production and sales volume of 191,000 tons and 203,000 tons respectively in the previous year, marking a year-on-year increase of 52% and 90% [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance the proportion of N-type materials in its production to 85% this year, up from 65-70% currently, which is expected to improve its competitive edge [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a global solar installation growth rate of nearly 30% this year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 20%, driven by strong demand [2][9]. - The company is expected to resume dividend payments following the completion of its A-share IPO, which is currently underway [1][2].
剔除减值影响后业绩略超预期，满产后多晶硅成本已大幅下降