Resilient DPS despite OPAT decline; EV assumptions change cut VNB more than expected

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a new target price of HK$52.00, implying a 57.6$33.00 [21][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in OPAT by 19.7% to RMB 118.0 billion, primarily due to a net loss of RMB 20.7 billion from asset management. Despite this, the company sustained dividend per share (DPS) growth to RMB 2.43, reflecting a 37.3% payout on shareholders' OPAT [21][24]. - The life and health (L&H) value of new business (VNB) amounted to RMB 39.3 billion, representing a 36.2% year-on-year increase, driven by stable VNB margins [21][24]. - Economic assumptions were adjusted, lowering the long-term investment return from 5.0% to 4.5% and the risk discount rate from 11% to 9.5%, which resulted in a significant impact on the embedded value (EV) and VNB [21][24]. Financial Summary - For FY23, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 85.7 billion, down 22.8% from the previous year, with a reported EPS of RMB 4.84 [29][30]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 11,583.4 billion in FY23 to RMB 13,760.7 billion by FY26, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.7% in FY23 to 14.3% by FY26, reflecting enhanced profitability [30]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.45x FY24E P/EV, with a target valuation of 1.0x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/B [24][28]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to increase from 6.9% in FY23 to 8.7% by FY26, indicating a strong return to shareholders [3][30]. Embedded Value and Sensitivity Analysis - The Group's embedded value is estimated at RMB 1,390.1 billion for FY23, reflecting a decrease of 6.7% due to the revised economic assumptions [21][25]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50 basis point decrease in long-term investment return could lead to a 7.6% decline in Group EV [8][21].