KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 145.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters [3] - The net interest margin has decreased by 27 basis points to 1.74%, primarily due to a significant drop in retail loan yields and an increase in deposit costs [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is reported at 40.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.96%, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 28.41%, slightly up from the previous year [3] - The company has increased its provision for bad debts significantly in Q4, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [3] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 43.5 billion, 47 billion, and 51.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating growth rates of 6.7%, 8.0%, and 9.1% [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 145.7 billion yuan in 2023, down 3.92% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to earlier quarters [3] - The net interest income decreased by 5.43% year-on-year, while non-interest income saw a slight increase of 0.60% due to gains from foreign exchange and other sources [3][4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans reached 2.17 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, growing by 12.14% year-on-year, outpacing the overall loan growth of 6.01% [4] - Retail loans, particularly personal operating loans, grew by 16%, while other types of retail loans saw declines [4] - Total deposits increased to 4.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.60%, with a notable rise in the proportion of demand deposits [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25%, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter [5] - The company has intensified efforts to dispose of bad loans, with 51.6 billion yuan written off in 2023, leading to a calculated NPL generation rate of 1.52%, down 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 181.27%, indicating a stronger buffer against potential loan losses [5]