Haitong Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [11][38]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2023 increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 155.2 billion yuan, with Non-IFRS net profit rising by 43.7% to 42.68 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [32]. - The overall gross margin improved by 7.3 percentage points year-on-year to 50.0%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin businesses such as mini-games and video ads [12][33]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3.4 HKD per share, totaling approximately 32 billion HKD, which represents a 42% increase [12]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 669.4 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9% [19]. - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 189.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20.1% [49]. - The report estimates the company's reasonable market value range for 2024 to be approximately 4,443.9 billion to 5,098.4 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 523.77 to 600.92 HKD [49]. Business Segment Performance - The gaming segment in Q4 2023 saw a 3% decline in domestic market revenue to 27 billion yuan, while high-margin mini-games experienced over 50% growth [47]. - The financial technology and enterprise services segment grew by 15.1% year-on-year to 54.4 billion yuan, driven by increased commercial payment activities and growth in wealth management and consumer loan services [14]. - Advertising revenue in Q4 2023 increased by 21% to 29.8 billion yuan, primarily due to demand for video ads and continuous upgrades to the advertising platform [33]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation multiple of 20-25 times for the value-added services and advertising business, estimating a value range of 26,180 to 32,725 billion yuan for these segments [36]. - The financial technology business is valued at 8 times the projected sales, estimating around 14,643 billion yuan [37].