LI AUTO(US:LI) Huajing Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI US) with a target price of US$46.00 [2][11][22]. Core Views - Li Auto has adjusted its 1Q24 delivery guidance down to 76,000-78,000 units and lowered its full-year delivery target to a year-on-year growth of 50-70%, corresponding to a range of 540,000-640,000 units [2][21]. - The company aims to focus on improving operational quality rather than solely pursuing sales volume, which is expected to enhance user value and operational efficiency [2][21]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin will maintain a healthy level of around 20% in the medium term, with an upward adjustment of gross margin forecasts for 2024-2026 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Delivery Guidance and Sales Strategy - Li Auto has revised its 1Q24 delivery guidance from 100,000-102,000 units to 76,000-78,000 units, citing misjudgment of the product lifecycle and excessive focus on sales volume [2][21]. - The company has also adjusted its full-year delivery target to a growth of 50-70%, reflecting a more sustainable approach to sales [2][21]. Financial Projections - The report has lowered the sales forecasts for 2024-2026 by 20.8%, 21.4%, and 19.5% to 575,500, 806,100, and 1,147,840 units respectively, leading to a corresponding reduction in revenue forecasts to RMB 163.84 billion, RMB 229.92 billion, and RMB 315.06 billion [3][22]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 15.43 billion, RMB 23.98 billion, and RMB 34.53 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 27.6%, 55.4%, and 44.0% [3][22]. Valuation Adjustments - The report has revised the 2024 P/E valuation down to 25 times from the previous 30 times, resulting in a target price adjustment to US$46.00 from US$63.20 while maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][11][22].