Xinda Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a focus on monitoring the stock due to its performance and future projections [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 98.624 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.809 billion, a decrease of 9.31% [2]. - In the second half of 2023, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 47.505 billion, up 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.789 billion, which is an increase of 15.3% [2]. - The revenue performance was stable across the year, with differentiated growth in product categories. Liquid milk products grew by 4.9%, ice cream by 6.6%, while the milk powder segment saw a decline of 1.6% [3]. - The gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 37.2%, driven by lower raw milk prices and an enhanced product mix. Operating profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% [3]. - The company announced a leadership transition with Gao Fei taking over as the new president, emphasizing a commitment to strategic stability and execution [3]. - For 2024, the company aims for a modest revenue growth in the low single digits and an increase in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 5.686 billion, RMB 6.322 billion, and RMB 6.648 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [3].