Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Shanxi Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [1][5] Core Views - The company continues to experience structural upgrades in its product offerings, with profit elasticity expected to be released in 2024 [1][4] - Despite a decline in sales volume in Q4 2023 due to external factors, the overall revenue for the year increased, supported by product upgrades [2][3] - The company is expected to recover sales gradually throughout 2024, aided by the upcoming summer Olympics and the easing of high base effects [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In 2023, Qingdao Beer achieved a total beer sales volume of 8.01 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.81%. Q4 sales volume was particularly affected, dropping by 10.09% year-on-year [2] - The main brand, Qingdao, saw a sales volume of 4.56 million kiloliters in 2023, an increase of 2.74%, accounting for 57.0% of total sales [2] - The average selling price for beer in 2023 was 4,238 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.34% [2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 33.937 billion RMB, a growth of 5.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.268 billion RMB, up 15.02% year-on-year [3][5] - The gross margin improved to 38.66%, and the net margin reached 12.58%, both showing year-on-year increases [2][3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 35.226 billion RMB, 36.800 billion RMB, and 38.344 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.5%, and 4.2% [5][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 4.987 billion RMB, 5.754 billion RMB, and 6.537 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16.9%, 15.4%, and 13.6% [5][7]