传媒行业行业专题研究：卡游：国内集换式卡牌龙头，IP及产品矩阵持续丰富

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the domestic collectible card market, highlighting its high-growth potential and recommending attention to the core business of collectible cards, IP, product, and channel enrichment, as well as profitability improvement [55] Core Views - Kayou: As the leading domestic collectible card company, Kayou holds popular IP resources such as Ultraman and has a rich IP and product matrix. The company has gone through three development stages: initial market entry (2011-2018), IP matrix construction and production line setup (2019-2022), and IP and product diversification (2022-present). The company's ownership is highly concentrated, with Li Qibin and his wife holding 83.5% of shares, while Sequoia and Tencent hold 10.5% and 3.0%, respectively [2] - Entertainment Product Industry: The industry is characterized by differentiated competition among players, with significant growth potential for collectible cards. IP licensing is a critical component, and large IPs with broad consumer bases are more likely to gain market recognition. The collectible card market in China is still in its early stages compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, with per capita spending on collectible cards in China being significantly lower (RMB 8.6 vs. RMB 50.7 in the US and RMB 92.3 in Japan) [2] - Kayou's Business Strategy: The company continues to build a diversified IP and product matrix, leveraging its collectible card business. As of September 30, 2023, Kayou's IP matrix includes 44 IPs, such as Ultraman, Naruto, and Harry Potter. The company's revenue is primarily driven by collectible cards, which accounted for over 85% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2023. Despite a 47% YoY decline in revenue to RMB 1.952 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 260 million, turning a profit from a loss [2] Industry Analysis - China's Entertainment Industry: The industry is driven by IP value, with the toy sector being a significant contributor. In 2022, the toy market accounted for 53.2% of the total entertainment product market, with a size of RMB 69 billion. Collectible cards, while only 17.7% of the toy market, have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 78.4% from 2017 to 2022. The market is expected to grow to RMB 31 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 20.6% [20][21] - Comparison with Overseas Markets: The collectible card market in China is still in its early stages compared to the US and Japan. In 2022, the market sizes in the US, Japan, and China were RMB 17.2 billion, RMB 11.4 billion, and RMB 12.2 billion, respectively. Per capita spending in China was RMB 8.6, significantly lower than in the US (RMB 50.7) and Japan (RMB 92.3), indicating substantial growth potential [22][23] - Industry Competition: The entertainment product industry in China is highly competitive, with the top five companies accounting for 25.9% of the market share in 2022. Kayou ranked second in the industry with a market share of 7.0% and first in the collectible card segment with a market share of 13.1% [27][28] Business Analysis - IP and Product Matrix: Kayou has built a diversified IP matrix, including 44 IPs as of September 30, 2023, such as Ultraman, Naruto, and Harry Potter. The company has also developed its own IP, such as the Kayou Three Kingdoms series, which contributed over RMB 110 million in cumulative sales by September 2023 [34][35] - Sales Channels: Kayou has established a nationwide sales network, primarily relying on distributors, with 230 distributors covering 31 provinces as of September 2023. The company also operates 31 flagship stores and 11 online stores, with retail channels contributing 9.0% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 [44][45] Financial Performance - Revenue and Profitability: Kayou's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was RMB 1.952 billion, a 47% YoY decline, primarily due to a drop in collectible card sales. However, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 260 million, turning a profit from a loss. Collectible cards accounted for over 85% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 71.2% [48][52] - Cost Structure: Direct material costs are the largest component of sales costs, accounting for a significant portion of total costs. IP licensing fees remained below 7.5% of total revenue, reflecting the company's strong IP procurement and cost control capabilities [49][51]