Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company 福莱特玻璃 (6865 HK) with a target price of HKD 19.50, indicating a potential downside of 1.0% from the current closing price of HKD 19.70 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The valuation recovery for 福莱特玻璃 has largely been completed, and short-term inventory reduction is expected to be challenging, leading to a downgrade to a neutral stance [1]. - The company's Q4 performance showed a slight decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter, with Q4 revenue at RMB 5.639 billion and net profit at RMB 791.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.8% and 28.0%, respectively [1][6]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.38 per share, with an annual dividend of RMB 0.618, representing a payout ratio of 53%, up 30 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, 福莱特玻璃 reported revenues of RMB 21.524 billion, a 39.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2.760 billion, an 18.7% increase [4][9]. - The company’s core business, photovoltaic glass, saw a revenue increase of 44% year-on-year, with sales volume up by 50% despite a 4% decline in unit price [1][5]. - The projected financials for 2024E show revenues expected to reach RMB 23.844 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 3.532 billion, indicating a growth rate of 10.8% and 28.0%, respectively [4][9]. Production and Capacity - The company added only 1,200 tons of photovoltaic glass capacity last year, significantly below the 7,200 tons added in 2022 and the initial guidance of 6,000 tons, with total capacity at 20,600 tons by year-end [1]. - Plans for 2024 include an additional 9,600 tons of capacity, but delays in production ramp-up are anticipated, with no new domestic capacity approved as of now [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market is expected to see a significant increase in supply in the second half of the year, driven by rapid inventory depletion and a recovery in profit margins, although the potential for continued high component production remains limited [1][6]. - The report notes that the industry has a substantial amount of capacity that is nearly complete, which could lead to oversupply conditions in the latter part of the year [1].
估值修复已基本完成，短期去库存难以持续，下调至中性