自营稳固，反转持续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.09 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 8.75% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.75 billion yuan, down 8.53% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is primarily due to cyclical impacts on brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses [1]. - The investment business showed growth, with income from investment activities reaching 2.39 billion yuan, an increase of 25.67% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the first and third quarters [1]. - The company has made progress in institutional business, with a 24.9% increase in interbank bond trading volume and a 177.2% increase in exchange bond trading volume [1]. - The brokerage business faced pressure, with brokerage income of 2.78 billion yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year, and a market share of 1.63% [1]. - The asset management business saw a revenue decline of 23.31% year-on-year, with total management scale decreasing to 235.75 billion yuan [1]. - The investment banking segment experienced a revenue drop of 12.86% year-on-year, completing 15 equity financing projects with a total underwriting amount of 12.998 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 17.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.75% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.75 billion yuan, down 8.53% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.30 yuan, a decline of 14.29% [1][2]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 3.45%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Investment Business: Revenue from investment activities was 2.39 billion yuan, up 25.67% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the first and third quarters [1]. - Brokerage Business: Revenue was 2.78 billion yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year, with a market share of 1.63% [1]. - Asset Management: Revenue decreased to 2.03 billion yuan, down 23.31% year-on-year, with total management scale at 235.75 billion yuan [1]. - Investment Banking: Revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, down 12.86% year-on-year, with a total underwriting amount of 12.998 billion yuan [1]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 downwards by 19.89% and 23.66%, respectively, expecting net profits of 3.18 billion yuan and 3.37 billion yuan in those years [1]. - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 22.4, 21.1, and 20.1, respectively, with PB ratios of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.9 [1][2].