ACC(600585) 国信证券·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - Revenue increased slightly year-on-year, but performance continued to be under pressure due to weak market demand, intensified industry competition, and declining cement prices [1][4] - Sales volume increased against the trend, with incremental contributions from aggregate and ready-mix concrete businesses [1][5] - Overseas revenue grew significantly, with a 17.8% year-on-year increase, driven by improved sales networks [1][5] - Despite price declines suppressing profitability, cash flow remained strong, and the dividend payout ratio stayed at a high level [1][7] - The company maintained a competitive edge as a leading player in the industry, with sufficient cash on hand and a low valuation, providing a high margin of safety [1][10] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 1410.0 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year [1][4] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: 104.3 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Q4 2023 revenue: 420.0 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [1][4] - Q4 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: 17.6 billion yuan, down 45.8% year-on-year [1][4] - 2023 EPS: 1.97 yuan/share, with a proposed dividend of 9.6 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [1][4] - 2023 operating cash flow: 201.1 billion yuan, up 108.4% year-on-year [1][7] - 2023 dividend payout ratio: 51.82%, including share repurchases [1][7] Business Highlights - Cement and clinker sales volume: 293 million tons, down 5.6% year-on-year, with self-produced sales volume at 285 million tons, up 0.72% year-on-year [1][5] - Aggregate business revenue: 3.86 billion yuan, up 73.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.3% [1][5] - Ready-mix concrete business revenue: 2.25 billion yuan, up 24.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 11% [1][5] - Overseas revenue: 4.67 billion yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.1% [1][5] Future Outlook - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 1.74/1.85/2.04 yuan/share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8x/12.0x/10.9x [1][10] - 2024 planned capital expenditure: 15.2 billion yuan, showing a trend of convergence [1][7] - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with cement profitability potentially bottoming out [1][10] Valuation and Metrics - 2023 P/E ratio: 11.3x [1][10] - 2023 P/B ratio: 0.63x [1][10] - 2023 EV/EBITDA: 8.8x [1][10] - 2023 ROE: 5.6% [1][10]