锂价超跌造成业绩承压，矿冶齐量增目标仍坚挺

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2][6] Core Views - The report highlights that lithium prices have significantly declined, impacting the company's performance, yet the targets for mining and metallurgy remain strong [2][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 40.503 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.13%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 69.75% to 7.297 billion yuan [6][8] - The report emphasizes the resilience of lithium prices and the high growth in revenue and gross profit from lithium concentrate business, which reached 27.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.2% [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 40.503 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.297 billion yuan, down 69.75% year-on-year [6][8] - The gross profit margin for the year was 84.99%, indicating strong profitability despite the decline in net profit [6][8] Business Segments - The lithium concentrate business generated revenue of 27.204 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 90.44%, up from 83.95% in 2022 [6][8] - The lithium chemical business saw a revenue decline to 13.29 billion yuan, down 46.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 73.85% [6][8] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its lithium chemical production capacity from 88,800 tons per year to a total of 143,800 tons in the long term, with several projects expected to ramp up production from 2024 to 2026 [6][8] - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 4.477 billion yuan in 2024, 5.439 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.512 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability as new projects come online [6][8] Market Position - Tianqi Lithium holds a significant position in the lithium market, with its Greenbushes lithium mine being the largest operating lithium mine globally, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials [6][8] - The report notes that the company has a strong resource endowment and is well-positioned to benefit from the expected stabilization of lithium prices [6][8]