铁路装备业务高增，毛利率同比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CNR Corporation Limited (601766.SH) [1] Core Views - The railway equipment business has seen significant growth, with an improvement in gross profit margin year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 234.26 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.71 billion, up 0.50% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights a strong demand for maintenance services due to the upcoming fifth-level repairs for high-speed trains, with substantial orders already signed [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 91.23 billion, a 4.41% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 5.56 billion, down 1.18% year-on-year [1] - The railway equipment business generated revenue of RMB 98.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.05%, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-speed train business [1] Business Analysis - The gross profit margin for the railway equipment business improved by 0.77 percentage points to 25.27% in 2023 [1] - The gross profit margins for urban rail and new industries also improved, reaching 21.29% and 19.14% respectively, contributing to an overall gross profit margin increase of 1.05 percentage points to 22.27% [1] - The report anticipates a surge in maintenance business due to the upcoming fifth-level repairs for high-speed trains, with significant orders already secured [1] Market Outlook - Railway fixed asset investment in 2023 was RMB 764.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a continued upward trend expected [1] - Passenger volume in 2023 reached 3.86 billion, a 130% increase year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand for railway services [1] - The report expects a rebound in demand for new train manufacturing as passenger volumes recover and bidding for new trains increases [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 258.83 billion, RMB 285.18 billion, and RMB 313.45 billion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 13.71 billion, RMB 15.38 billion, and RMB 16.74 billion [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 14X, 12X, and 11X for the same period [1]