Q4业绩增速小幅转正

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Joyoung Co., Ltd. is maintained at "Buy - A" with a target price of 12.83 CNY for the next six months [6]. Core Views - Joyoung reported a slight recovery in Q4 2023 with a revenue of 28.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, while the net profit reached 0.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery in small home appliance consumption and its ongoing expansion into new products and channels, which may lead to a sustained increase in revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Joyoung achieved a total revenue of 96.1 billion CNY, down 5.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.9 billion CNY, down 26.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q4 gross margin was reported at 27.0%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of low-margin ODM exports [2]. - The net profit margin for Q4 was 0.9%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to gains from the disposal of joint ventures [3]. - Operating cash flow showed significant improvement in Q4, with a net cash flow of 340 million CNY compared to a negative 300 million CNY in the same period last year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Joyoung from 2024 to 2026 are 0.58 CNY, 0.69 CNY, and 0.80 CNY respectively [3][20]. - The company’s revenue is expected to recover to 101.9 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit forecasted at 4.5 billion CNY [20]. Valuation Metrics - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 22 times, with a projected price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4 [20]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 5.1% by 2026 [20].