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经营业绩大幅改善 景气恢复可期
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-03-28 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance has significantly improved, with a recovery in market conditions expected [1] - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 141.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 166.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.046 billion RMB, a year-on-year improvement of 97.29% [1] - The domestic travel demand has surpassed pre-2019 levels, indicating a promising recovery in the aviation market [1] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In 2023, the company's Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 164.2%, recovering to 102% of 2019 levels, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) grew by 206.1%, reaching 91.9% of 2019 levels [1] - The passenger load factor improved by 10.0 percentage points to 73.2%, narrowing the gap to 2019 levels to 7.8 percentage points [1] - The company reported a significant reduction in operating losses, with a unit operating cost of 0.46 RMB per seat kilometer, down 47% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 9.8 billion RMB and 14 billion RMB, respectively, and introduces a new forecast for 2026 at 18.2 billion RMB [1] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth in 2024 as revenue continues to rise and costs normalize [1] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 was 141.1 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 166.7% compared to 2022 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was -1.046 billion RMB, reflecting a significant reduction in losses [5] - The report projects a return on equity (ROE) of 16.2% for 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [5]