Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Life Insurance (601628) with a target price of 41.24 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 46.67 CNY. The current price is 28.50 CNY [10][11]. Core Views - The business quality of China Life Insurance is showing resilience, with shareholder returns reflecting strong performance. The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to decline by 34.2% year-on-year, primarily due to optimization of human resources and improvements in the business duration structure [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 21,110 million CNY, down from 32,082 million CNY in 2022, reflecting a decrease of 34.2% [13]. - Total assets are expected to grow from 5,888,479 million CNY in 2023 to 6,325,797 million CNY in 2024, indicating a steady increase [13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 4.6% in 2023, down from 7.4% in 2022 [13]. Investment Metrics - The report highlights a decrease in investment income, with a projected investment return of 190,627 million CNY for 2023, down from 217,775 million CNY in 2022 [13]. - The net investment yield is expected to decline to 3.77% in 2023 from 4.00% in 2022 [22]. Business Growth - New business value is anticipated to grow by 11.9% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for insurance savings products [10]. - The report notes a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio, which is expected to rise to 57.6% in 2023 from 43.2% in 2022, reflecting the company's focus on shareholder returns [10][11]. Market Position - China Life Insurance's market capitalization is reported at 795,086 million CNY, with a 52-week price range of 25.60 to 42.75 CNY [2][11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovering equity market and strong consumer savings demand, which are seen as catalysts for future growth [10].