EBSCN·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 4.17 CNY [11]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China shows steady growth in its "Three Rural" business, with strong revenue and profit resilience [1]. - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2023, down 4 basis points from the beginning of the year [29]. - The bank's non-interest income increased by 17.5% year-on-year, contributing to a slight decline in its proportion of total revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - As of the end of 2023, Agricultural Bank's total assets, interest-earning assets, and loans grew by 17.5%, 17.6%, and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The bank's loan growth was characterized by a strong focus on corporate and retail loans, with significant increases in key sectors such as manufacturing and high-tech industries [2]. Non-Interest Income - The bank's non-interest income reached 123.1 billion CNY, accounting for 17.7% of total revenue, slightly down from earlier in the year [3]. - The growth in non-interest income was driven by a significant increase in investment income and foreign exchange gains [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.78, 0.81, and 0.84 CNY, respectively [4]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected at 0.56, 0.52, and 0.48 for the next three years, indicating a favorable valuation [4]. Asset Quality - The bank's NPL balance increased to 300.8 billion CNY, with a net increase of 29.7 billion CNY for the year, reflecting a manageable risk profile [29]. - The bank's provisioning coverage ratio stands at 303.9%, indicating strong risk absorption capacity [29]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio was reported at 17.14% at the end of 2023, demonstrating a solid capital position [32]. - The bank's Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.87%, reflecting a stable capital structure [32].