ZA ONLINE(06060) 海通证券·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 4.08 billion RMB in 2023, recovering from a loss of 1.11 billion RMB in 2022. After adjustments related to the transition of a subsidiary to an associate, the adjusted net profit stands at 290 million RMB [2][4]. - The insurance segment turned profitable, while the banking segment's losses narrowed. The net profits for the insurance, technology, and banking segments in 2023 were 550 million RMB, -470 million RMB, and -280 million RMB, respectively [2][4]. - Total premiums reached 29.5 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.7%. The health, digital life, consumer finance, and automotive segments saw premium growth rates of 9%, 42%, 23%, and 25%, respectively [2][4][7]. - The comprehensive cost ratio improved to 95.2%, with a claims ratio of 56.8% and an expense ratio of 38.4% [2][4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 27.54 billion RMB in 2023 to 39.71 billion RMB by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.09% in 2023 [4][10]. - The net profit is expected to decline significantly by 90.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, reaching 712 million RMB by 2026 [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.77 RMB in 2023, dropping to 0.28 RMB in 2024, and gradually increasing thereafter [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a comparable company valuation multiple of 1.29x to 1.36x for the 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio, suggesting a reasonable value range of 18.26 RMB to 19.23 RMB, equivalent to 20.13 HKD to 21.20 HKD [2][4][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 0.8x PB for 2024E, indicating potential upside [2][4].