Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power, with a target price adjusted to 21.50 yuan, down from the previous forecast of 23.73 yuan [5][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was below expectations, with revenue of 37.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.249 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2% [3][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 9.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year [3]. - The company plans to distribute dividends totaling 1.92 billion yuan, representing 30.7% of net profit, which is an increase of 11.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Longyuan Power added 4.5 GW of new installed capacity in 2023, with 1.6 GW from wind power and 2.9 GW from solar power [3]. - The report highlights the company's significant project reserves, with 54 GW of new resource reserves and 23 GW of development indicators acquired in 2023, indicating broad growth potential in the long term [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 37,642 million yuan, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at 41,609 million yuan and 46,826 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 6,249 million yuan, with expected growth to 7,967 million yuan in 2024 and 9,462 million yuan in 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.75 yuan, projected to increase to 0.95 yuan in 2024 and 1.13 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 36.4%, with expectations for improvement to 37.2% in 2024 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19x for 2025, reflecting a premium for being a leading player in the industry [3]. - The company's current PE is 24.79, with projections of 19.44 for 2024 and 16.37 for 2025 [4][5]. - The dividend yield for 2023 is noted at 0.6%, expected to rise to 1.2% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025 [4].