建筑装饰行业跟踪报告：2024年基建托底确定性强，中央发力助资金来源充足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the construction and decoration industry in 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes strong government support for infrastructure investment in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 5.8% for fixed asset investment, indicating a continued reliance on infrastructure to stabilize economic growth amid ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [20][21]. - Infrastructure investment in 2023 reached 17.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a total investment of 22.77 trillion yuan when including all categories, reflecting an 8.24% growth [6][19]. - The report highlights that the actual physical workload in infrastructure may lag behind investment growth due to factors such as insufficient project preparation and regulatory constraints on fund usage [6][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2023 Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth in 2023 was characterized by a "front high, back low" trend, with quarterly investments of 3.44 trillion yuan, 6.77 trillion yuan, 5.99 trillion yuan, and 6.57 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth rates of 10.82%, 9.81%, 6.16%, and 7.27% respectively [6][19]. - The report notes that the growth in infrastructure investment was supported by a significant increase in special bonds and government bonds in the fourth quarter, which helped to improve the funding situation [6][19]. 2. Analysis of Government Infrastructure Investment Demand for 2024 - The report indicates that the demand for government infrastructure investment remains robust, with a weighted average target growth rate of 5.8% for fixed asset investment across various provinces [20][21]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to play a crucial role in countering the downturn in the real estate sector, which saw a year-on-year decline of 9.6% in 2023 [20]. 3. Funding Sources for Infrastructure Investment in 2024 - The report outlines that the funding sources for infrastructure investment are expected to be sufficient, with a mix of national budget funds, domestic loans, and self-raised funds [23][27]. - It highlights that the proportion of general public budget expenditure directed towards infrastructure is expected to remain stable, with a projected issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan in new special bonds for 2024 [27][28]. 4. Outlook for Infrastructure Investment in 2024 - The report forecasts that infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with an expected increase of 8.6% under optimistic conditions and 5.3% under neutral conditions [28]. - It emphasizes the necessity of infrastructure investment to support economic recovery, predicting that the physical workload will align more closely with investment growth in 2024 [28].