CHINA RES POWER-2023年业绩符合预期；火电现金牛和低融资成本支持可再生能源扩张，维持“买入”

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating with a new target price of HK $20.50, derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation method (firepower at 0.7x 2024 P/B and renewables at 7.5x 2024 P/E) [1] - 2024 and 2025 EPS forecasts adjusted to HK$ 2.88 (+3.3%) and HK $3.49 (+1.8%) respectively, with a new 2026 EPS forecast of HK$ 3.84 [1] Core Views - 2023 performance met expectations with a 56.2% YoY increase in shareholder profit to HK $11.003 billion [1] - Total equity-based operating generation capacity increased by 7,183 MW in 2023, including 3,106 MW from wind and 2,230 MW from solar [1] - Dividend payout ratio remained at 40%, reaching 62% including a special dividend for the 20th IPO anniversary [1] - Firepower business outlook remains stable with a projected 3-5% decline in average fuel cost per unit in 2024, following a 12.6% decline in 2023 to RMB 296/MWh [1] - Ambitious renewable energy expansion plan for 2024, targeting 10 GW of new capacity (up from 5,336 MW in 2023) with a capital expenditure budget of HK$ 44.6 billion [1] - Low-cost debt financing advantage with an effective interest rate of approximately 2.9% in 2023 [1] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was HK $103.334 billion, with net profit of HK$ 11.003 billion, representing a 56.8% YoY increase in EPS to HK $2.29 [4] - 2024 revenue forecast at HK$ 107.698 billion, with net profit expected to rise to HK $13.837 billion and EPS to HK$ 2.877 [4] - 2025 revenue forecast at HK $113.202 billion, with net profit expected to reach HK$ 16.8 billion and EPS to HK $3.492 [4] - 2026 revenue forecast at HK$ 118.98 billion, with net profit expected to grow to HK $18.493 billion and EPS to HK$ 3.844 [4] - Operating margin improved to 17.6% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 11.7% [7] - ROE increased to 12.9% in 2023, with further improvements expected to 14.9% in 2024 and 16.3% in 2025 [7] Operational Highlights - Firepower capacity addition planned for 2024 is approximately 927 MW [1] - Renewable energy expansion is supported by strong cash flow from the firepower business and low financing costs [1] - Total assets increased to HK $322.396 billion in 2023, with PPE growing to HK$ 215.752 billion [7] - Net gearing rose to 182.5% in 2023, with further increases expected to 215.3% in 2024 and 234.3% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - Share price increased by 7.3% over the past month, 15.9% over the past three months, and 13.3% over the past year [3] - Relative performance to the HSI index was 6.6% over the past month, 12.7% over the past three months, and 27.2% over the past year [3] - Average share price over the past year was HK $15.7, with a current share price of HK$ 17.86 [3]