ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 25.08 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights an increase in the dividend payout ratio from 36% to 45% for 2023, with expectations to further increase to at least 50% in 2025-2026, indicating enhanced investment value [6]. - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 261.4 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, while net profit was 16.6 billion CNY, up 12.8% [6]. - The report anticipates continued growth in various business segments, particularly in air conditioning and smart home appliances, driven by digital transformation and cost optimization [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Revenue is projected to grow from 261.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 321.5 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 16.6 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.8 billion CNY in 2026, maintaining a growth rate of around 12-13% [2][6]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.76 CNY in 2024 to 2.52 CNY in 2026 [2][8]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2024 to 9.4 by 2026, indicating increasing attractiveness for investors [2]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.5 in 2024 to 1.5 in 2026 [2]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue Breakdown: - Domestic sales grew by 7%, with significant contributions from the Casarte brand and air conditioning, which saw growth rates of 14% and 17% respectively [6]. - International sales increased by 7.6%, with North America and Europe contributing significantly, accounting for 80% of total exports [6]. - Profitability Analysis: - The gross margin improved to 31.5%, driven by lower raw material costs and product mix optimization [6]. - Net profit margin increased to 6.3%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency across all business segments, particularly in air conditioning [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Haier Smart Home has multiple avenues for profit enhancement in 2024, including strong domestic sales in air conditioning and kitchen appliances, inventory recovery for the Casarte brand, and cost-saving digital reforms [7]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. in the second half of 2024 may further boost demand in the real estate sector, providing additional growth opportunities for the company [7].