CCCC(601800) 国盛证券·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company surged 58% YoY, surpassing expectations [1] - Q4 revenue and net profit growth accelerated significantly, driven by a 3pct increase in gross margin and reduced impairment losses [1] - Overseas business revenue grew 18% YoY, showing strong momentum [1] - Gross margin improved to 12.54%, up 0.9pct YoY, due to better overseas operating conditions and increased contributions from higher-margin domestic projects [1] - ROE increased to 8.2%, up 1.1pct YoY, primarily driven by higher net profit margin [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of 12.07 billion yuan, up 10.9 billion yuan YoY [1] - New overseas contracts grew 48% YoY, reaching 319.7 billion yuan, indicating strong overseas order growth [1] - The company has ample backlog, with unfinished contracts totaling 3.45 trillion yuan, 4.5 times the 2023 revenue [1] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached 758.7 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.8 billion yuan, up 23.6% YoY [1][2] - EPS for 2023 was 1.46 yuan, with expected EPS for 2024-2026 at 1.57/1.67/1.78 yuan [1][2] - Gross margin improved to 12.54%, up 0.9pct YoY [1] - Net profit margin increased to 3.14%, up 0.5pct YoY [1] - ROE rose to 8.2%, up 1.1pct YoY [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of 12.07 billion yuan, up 10.9 billion yuan YoY [1] Business Segments - Infrastructure construction revenue was 665.9 billion yuan, up 5% YoY [1] - Infrastructure design revenue was 47.3 billion yuan, down 6% YoY [1] - Dredging business revenue was 53.4 billion yuan, up 5% YoY [1] - Other business revenue was 19.3 billion yuan, up 6% YoY [1] - Domestic revenue was 642.5 billion yuan, up 3% YoY [1] - Overseas revenue was 116.2 billion yuan, up 18% YoY [1] Order Backlog - New contracts in 2023 totaled 1.75 trillion yuan, up 14% YoY [1] - Domestic new contracts were 1.43 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY [1] - Overseas new contracts were 319.7 billion yuan, up 48% YoY [1] - Infrastructure business new contracts were 1.56 trillion yuan, up 14% YoY [1] - Infrastructure design new contracts were 56 billion yuan, up 2% YoY [1] - Dredging business new contracts were 119.2 billion yuan, up 12% YoY [1] - Other business new contracts were 19.6 billion yuan, up 44% YoY [1] - Unfinished contracts at the end of 2023 were 3.45 trillion yuan, 4.5 times the 2023 revenue [1] Valuation - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 5.2x, 4.9x, and 4.6x respectively [1][2] - Latest PB ratio is 0.52x [1][2] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026 is 25.6/27.3/28.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.6%/6.4%/6.2% [1][2] Industry - The company operates in the infrastructure construction industry [3]