煤炭行业周报：电煤底部仍有支撑，焦煤需求有望回温

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - Thermal coal consumption has decreased, leading to a rapid decline in coal prices. As of March 22, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 850 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton week-on-week. The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) for March 2024 is 708 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% and flat compared to the previous month [2][10] - Coking coal and coke prices are also experiencing a continuous decline. As of March 22, the coking coal price index was 1787 CNY/ton, down 92 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the cost index was 1929 CNY/ton, down 125 CNY/ton. The price index is now 142 CNY/ton below the cost index, indicating an increasing gap [3][27] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand decline, there is potential for price stabilization in coking coal as steel demand improves [3][46] Summary by Sections 1.1 Thermal Coal - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in coastal provinces has decreased to 191.8 million tons, down 13.7 million tons week-on-week. Inland provinces show a similar trend with a daily average consumption of 342.6 million tons, down 10.4 million tons [2][13] - Coal production in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions totaled 27.41 million tons for the week ending March 17, a decrease of 274,000 tons week-on-week [19] 1.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have decreased significantly, with the main coking coal price at 2000 CNY/ton for Shanxi origin, down 100 CNY/ton week-on-week. The coke price index has also dropped, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3][23][27] 1.3 Downstream Changes - Steel inventory is being reduced as expected, and there is an urgent need to restore pig iron production. This could positively impact coking coal demand in the near future [28] 1.4 Futures - Futures prices for coking coal and coke have shown some recovery, suggesting potential stabilization in the market [3] 1.5 Transportation - Coastal transportation prices have slightly adjusted downwards, reflecting changes in demand and supply dynamics [33] 1.6 Carbon Emission Trading - The national carbon market's carbon emission allowance (CEA) closed at 83.83 CNY/ton on March 22, an increase of 4.8% week-on-week [37] 2. Industry News - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines for energy work in 2024, emphasizing energy security and coal production targets [40] - In early March, monitored coal production showed a year-on-year decline of 6.3%, indicating ongoing supply challenges [41] 3. Weekly Market Review - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with recommendations focusing on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE) [46]