4Q23回顾：聚焦盈利增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a slight adjustment of the SOTP target price from HKD 180.00 to HKD 175.00 [6][27]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience revenue growth of 20% in Q1 2024, 17% in Q2 2024, and 17% for the full year 2024, despite macroeconomic challenges and strategic adjustments in new business areas [4][20]. - The adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 has been raised by 19% following the updated forecasts [4][22]. - The report introduces forecasts for 2026, indicating a continued positive outlook for the company's financial performance [4]. Financial Summary - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 is projected at RMB 5,447 million, with a margin of 8.2%, and is expected to increase to RMB 8,788 million in Q2 2024 with a margin of 10.8% [3][4]. - The core local business is anticipated to generate revenues of RMB 8,601 million in Q1 2024, increasing to RMB 11,874 million in Q2 2024 [3]. - New business segments are projected to incur losses of RMB 3,153 million in Q1 2024, with losses expected to narrow over time [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation for the restaurant delivery business is set at USD 53 billion based on a 15x P/E multiple for 2024, reflecting a 60% discount compared to global peers [24]. - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x P/GMV multiple, which is a 20% discount relative to comparable companies [25]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately USD 71.08 billion [29]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net income of RMB 32,016 million in 2024, with a net income margin of 9.9% [22]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024 is projected to be RMB 5.03, reflecting a 19% increase from previous estimates [22][24].