Meituan (3690.HK): NDR highlights: Sustaining food delivery scale leadership and unit economics advantage; Buy We hosted Meituan's Capital Markets team with investors on Mar 30th post its 4Q25 results. Investors' key focuses centered around latest food delivery competitive landscape and longer-term unit economics outlook, in-store competition & margin trajectory, Instashopping's growth and margin outlook, investment scale for overseas expansion (Keeta) and other grocery new initiatives (e.g. Ella/Xiaoxiang ...

报告发布日期 2026 年 04 月 01 日 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 9.99 3.76 -19.27 -47.41 美团-W 03690.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 股价（2026年03月30日） 84.2 港元 目标价格 102.28 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 160.8/73.6 港元 美团 4Q25 点评：即时配送业务利润进入 买入（维持） 核心观点 核心观点：短期行业补贴趋于理性、竞争趋缓，我们判断公司即时配送业务利润有望进 入减亏修复期，动态关注行业竞争变化。到店方面跟进利润端向上拐点出现。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到即时配送业务竞争或缓和，公司利润修复好于预期，我们预计公司 25-27 年每 股收益分别为-3.78/-2.69/2.39 元（原预测为-3.21/-4.20/-0.11 元）。采用分部估值， 计算公司合理估值为 6,315 亿 HKD，目标价 102.28 元 HKD，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 政策管控，市场竞争加剧，消费恢复不及预期，新业务增长不及预期 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | ...

王兴感谢湖北省委、省政府对美团发展的大力支持，对湖北经济社会发展态势和综合优势给予高度评 价。他表示，美团将进一步深化与湖北合作，加强在鄂投资布局，做强做优"零售+科技"，推动小象超 市等零售业态加速落地，积极推广湖北特色优质产品，助力湖北高质量发展，服务人民群众高品质生 活。 记者：杨念明、王馨、张朋、任勇 省领导盛阅春、彭勇、陈平参加会见。 来源：湖北日报 3月31日下午，省委书记、省人大常委会主任王忠林在武汉会见美团创始人、董事长兼首席执行官王兴 一行。 编辑：梁唯雅 责编：胡芳华 王忠林对王兴一行来鄂调研表示欢迎。他说，美团是我国数字经济领域头部企业，长期以来特别是在抗 疫斗争和疫后复苏重振期间对湖北经济社会发展给予了大力支持。近年来，在以习近平同志为核心的党 中央坚强领导下，湖北经济发展稳中向好、量质并进，区位交通、市场腹地、社会购买力、物产资源等 优势不断提升。当前，湖北正深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和习近平总书记考察湖北重要讲话精 神，积极实施扩大内需战略，大力发展数智经济，推进消费扩容升级，促进商贸、物流等现代服务业优 质高效发展。希望美团充分发挥平台优势，持续加强在鄂投资布局，推动更多新项 ...

巨额的亏损，主要系"外卖大战"所致。 尽管美团称，在外卖领域公司依旧稳定保持60%以上的GTV市场份额，但从市场反应来看，"外卖大 战"带来的冲击，远比想象中更大。 在外卖大战的影响下，2025年美团的业绩"答卷"，表现较为糟糕。 3月26日，美团发布了2025年第四季度及全年业绩报告。财报显示，2025年全年实现收入3649亿元，同 比增长8.1%；全年净亏损233.5亿元，去年同期盈利为358.1亿元；经营亏损170亿元。 值得注意的是，2025年全年核心本地商业板块净亏损69亿元。美团在财报中解释，亏损主要源于毛利润 下降，以及为应对激烈市场竞争、提升用户粘性、巩固市场地位，调整业务策略导致的交易用户激励及 推广广告开支增加。 从中短期维度来看，随着"外卖大战"逐步收尾，美团的经营状况有望相应好转，但想重回巅峰状态，难 度依然较大。 王兴在业绩会上表示，监管部门坚决反对非理性竞争，希望建立健康有序的市场。美团将积极配合监管 调查，同时将资源重新聚焦于高质量订单，努力捍卫市场份额。 根据统计数据显示，2025年美团整体跌幅超过31%；进入2026年，美团依旧延续跌势，跌幅近20%。截 至最新收盘，美团总市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan is enhancing its "Safe Takeaway" initiative for 2026, focusing on food safety governance through AI, transparency, social co-governance, and supply innovation across the entire process from merchant onboarding to consumer feedback [2][3]. Group 1: Food Safety Governance - The initiative emphasizes four key areas: intelligent verification, information transparency, social co-governance, and supply innovation [2]. - Meituan is strengthening its merchant onboarding process by requiring businesses to submit licenses and permits, and has improved verification accuracy and efficiency by integrating with government data [2]. - The platform has established a multi-layered risk identification mechanism, including self-inspection by merchants, platform inspections, AI inspections, and third-party checks [2]. Group 2: Consumer and Rider Involvement - Meituan believes that food safety governance requires social co-governance, involving riders and consumers in the process [3]. - Riders can report food safety issues through the app and receive rewards for verified reports, while consumers can participate in the "Food Safety Review Team" to collect information and verify store authenticity [3]. - The initiative has already seen over 400,000 merchants adopt the "Bright Kitchen" program, receiving traffic and cash support from the platform [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 92.1 billion yuan for Q4 2025, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 92.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was 14.02 billion yuan, up from 11.52 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company experienced a significant increase in operating losses, reporting a loss of 16.07 billion yuan compared to a profit of 6.694 billion yuan in the previous year, primarily due to increased marketing and promotional expenses, rider subsidies, and investments in AI [1] Revenue and Business Performance - Core local business revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to 64.8 billion yuan, with delivery services and commissions down by 9.9% and 1.2% respectively, while online marketing services and other sales increased by 2.3% and 75.5% [1] - Despite increased subsidies impacting revenue, transaction volume and value remained stable due to higher purchase frequency and cross-business sales growth, maintaining over 60% market share in GTV [1] New Business Growth - New business revenue reached 104 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with operating losses widening to 10.1 billion yuan [2] - In Q4 2025, new business revenue was 27.3 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with operating losses of 4.6 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in overseas investment [2] - The expansion of the Xiaoxiang supermarket and Keeta's market presence in Hong Kong and other international markets indicates strong growth potential [2] AI and R&D Investments - The company plans to invest 26 billion yuan in R&D in 2025, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, with R&D expense ratio rising to 7.1% [3] - In Q4 2025, R&D spending was 7 billion yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year, with a corresponding increase in expense ratio to 7.6% [3] - The deployment of drones and AI tools, including the "Xiaotuan" assistant, has positively impacted offline consumption and supported over 3.4 million merchants [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with expectations of improved profitability despite short-term pressures from increased competition [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been revised down to 2.5 billion and 3.04 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 set at 4.4 billion yuan [4] - The company is compared to Alibaba and Pinduoduo, with a projected average PS of 2.0 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 66% from current market valuation [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2025 met expectations, with a projected recovery in profitability by 2026 [1][4]. - The core local business faced challenges, particularly in food delivery, while flash purchase maintained high growth [3][11]. - The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability in Q1 2026 due to a reduction in subsidies and an improvement in order structure [4][18]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, Meituan reported a revenue of 920.96 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, but an adjusted net loss of 150.80 billion CNY compared to a profit of 98.49 billion CNY in the same period last year [2][8]. - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3,648.55 billion CNY, representing an 8.1% increase, with an adjusted net loss of 186.48 billion CNY [2][8]. - The core local business revenue was 648.4 billion CNY in Q4 2025, down 1.1% year-on-year, with significant declines in delivery service and commission revenues due to increased competition and subsidy investments [3][11]. Future Projections - The revenue forecast for 2026 is 393.88 billion CNY, with an expected growth rate of 8.0% [5][21]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be -17.76 billion CNY in 2026, improving to -0.94 billion CNY in 2027, and turning positive at 20.22 billion CNY in 2028 [5][21]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with adjusted net profit margins expected to improve from -4.5% in 2026 to 4.1% in 2028 [20][21].

Core Insights - The four major e-commerce companies, Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Meituan, reported their 2025 financial results, showcasing a mix of revenue growth and profit declines, with some companies opting for long-term strategies over immediate profits [1][20][21]. Revenue Performance - JD.com led in revenue with 1.3091 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.97%, followed by Alibaba at 1.0167 trillion yuan, growing approximately 3.56%. Pinduoduo reported 431.8 billion yuan, up 9.65%, while Meituan reached 364.9 billion yuan, growing 8.08% [2][22][24]. - JD.com demonstrated the highest revenue growth rate, indicating strong growth momentum, while Alibaba's slower growth reflects competitive pressures in its core e-commerce business [25]. Profitability Trends - All four companies experienced a decline in net profits. Alibaba's net profit fell by 23.78% to 92.164 billion yuan, Pinduoduo's decreased by 11.62% to 99.4 billion yuan, JD.com reported a 52.54% drop to 19.6 billion yuan, and Meituan shifted from a profit of 35.8 billion yuan to a net loss of 23.5 billion yuan, marking the most significant deterioration [2][27][26]. Marketing Expenditures - Alibaba's marketing expenses surged to 191.6 billion yuan, a 77.67% increase, making it the highest among the four companies. Meituan's marketing costs reached 102.9 billion yuan, up 60.9%, while JD.com spent 83.95 billion yuan, increasing by 75.07%. Pinduoduo's marketing expenses were 125.3 billion yuan, with a more moderate growth of 12.57% [8][28][29]. - The significant rise in marketing expenses reflects the competitive landscape, with companies engaging in aggressive strategies to maintain market share [30]. Strategic Focus for 2026 - Alibaba is focusing on "AI + Instant Retail" to enhance user engagement and retention, leveraging its full-stack AI capabilities [36]. - JD.com aims to maintain double-digit growth in its core retail business while reducing losses in its new ventures, emphasizing international expansion and AI integration [37]. - Pinduoduo is shifting its strategy towards upgrading the Chinese supply chain, focusing on long-term value creation rather than immediate user growth [38]. - Meituan is transitioning from aggressive expansion to defending market share, prioritizing high-quality growth and AI investments [39]. Industry Outlook - The e-commerce sector is moving away from the "subsidy for growth" model towards a focus on technology-driven, efficiency-first competition, with an emphasis on sustainable long-term strategies [39].

社会服务/本地生活服务Ⅱ 美团-W（03690.HK） 2026 年 03 月 31 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/3/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 84.200 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 160.80/73.600 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 5,198.83 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 5,198.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 61.74 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 61.74 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 52.82 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 美团-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2025Q3 业绩不及预期，待竞争格局 企 稳 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.12.1 《2025Q2 业绩不及预期，行业激烈竞 争预计延续—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2025.8.29 2025Q4 收入符合预期，外卖竞争格局有望边际改善 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 初敏（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | ...

Core Insights - Major instant retail platforms reported significant losses in their 2025 financials, with Meituan losing 23.4 billion, JD's new business losing 46.6 billion, and Alibaba losing over 37.6 billion in a single quarter, totaling over 100 billion in losses among the three giants [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant retail market reached 971.4 billion in 2025, growing at a rate of 24%, indicating that the market is expanding rather than contracting [6] - The competition has shifted from merely burning cash to achieving speed while maintaining stability [7] - Meituan focuses on maintaining a large network of over 600,000 riders, achieving over 50% market share at the cost of a 6.9 billion loss [8] - Alibaba aims to leverage high-frequency delivery to drive traffic to its lower-frequency e-commerce business, resulting in a 37.6 billion loss but achieving 120 million daily orders [9] - JD is positioning itself as a quality delivery service, incurring a 46.6 billion loss to establish a brand perception of quality [10] Group 2: Implications for Businesses - The reduction in platform subsidies means that businesses must learn to attract and retain customers independently [12][13] - Cost management becomes crucial, as businesses need to analyze which products are profitable and which are not [14] - With reduced subsidies, consumers will become more price-sensitive, necessitating a focus on inventory management and product selection [15] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The competition has evolved from speed to stability, with companies needing to find their unique positioning in the market [18] - Meituan's strategy emphasizes scale as a competitive advantage, suggesting that local businesses should aim for comprehensive coverage within their vicinity [19][20] - Alibaba's approach indicates that high-frequency products can drive sales of lower-frequency items, encouraging businesses to bundle products effectively [21] - JD's focus on quality suggests that there is a market for premium products, even in a price-sensitive environment [22] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry will shift its focus from how much money was burned to what value was created [25][28] - Companies that survive this competitive landscape will be those that adapt to new methods of accounting and operational efficiency [27]