东海证券晨会纪要

Group 1: Semiconductor and AI Industry Insights - The rapid development of AI large models is driving significant growth in the semiconductor and optical module sectors, with AI server demand expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 29% over the next three years [10][14]. - The global AI server market is projected to expand from approximately 855,000 units in 2023 to 2,369,000 units by 2026, indicating a robust demand for AI computing chips and supporting optical modules [10][14]. - GPUs are the most common type of AI chips, accounting for about 89% of China's AI computing market, and they represent approximately 70-75% of the cost of AI servers [11][12]. Group 2: Optical Module Market Dynamics - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing need for high-speed interconnections in servers and data centers, with data communication optical modules projected to capture 60% of the market share by 2026 [13]. - China has a strong presence in the optical module market, with five of the top ten global optical module companies located in the region, and the domestic packaging capabilities are leading globally [13]. - The domestic production rate for high-end optical chips (25G and above) is currently low, presenting substantial opportunities for domestic companies to increase their market share through localization efforts [13]. Group 3: Deposit Growth and Structure Rebalancing - Recent months have seen a noticeable decline in deposit growth rates, with a significant shift in the structure of deposits, influenced by macroeconomic policies and the return of asset management products to banks [17][18]. - The growth of deposits is expected to slow down further due to high base effects and a rebalancing of credit structures, with a notable decrease in corporate demand for deposits [18][19]. - Positive macroeconomic policies are anticipated to enhance the deposit structure, with improvements in consumer credit and corporate deposits expected as a result of government initiatives [20][21].