NBV高增速领先同业，银保业务质量明显提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.712 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 59.5%. The fourth quarter saw a loss of 830 million yuan, contrasting with a profit in the same period last year [7][9]. - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders stood at 105.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the beginning of the year but a 3.0% decrease from the end of the third quarter [7][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) was 7.94%, down 14.47 percentage points year-on-year [7][9]. - The company adjusted its long-term investment return assumptions and risk discount rates, lowering them from 5% and 11% to 4.5% and 9%, respectively, impacting both EV and NBV [7][9]. - The end-of-year EV was 250.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.0% year-on-year, while the NBV for the year was 30.2 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8% [7][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 71.547 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.78%. Forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 82.890 billion yuan, 89.677 billion yuan, and 97.068 billion yuan, respectively [7][24]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 8.712 billion yuan, with projections of 10.773 billion yuan for 2024, 11.945 billion yuan for 2025, and 13.238 billion yuan for 2026 [7][24]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 2.79 yuan, with forecasts of 3.45 yuan for 2024, 3.83 yuan for 2025, and 4.24 yuan for 2026 [7][24]. - The company’s investment scale increased to 1.3361 trillion yuan, a 15.4% rise from the beginning of the year, with a net investment yield of 3.4% [8][9]. Business Performance - The insurance service revenue was 48.045 billion yuan in 2023, with a forecast of 52.850 billion yuan for 2024 [24]. - The first-year premium for long-term insurance was 40.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with significant growth in the periodic premium segment [8][9]. - The company’s new business value (NBV) margin improved to 8.9%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. - The individual insurance workforce decreased by 21.3% from the beginning of the year, but the average productivity per person nearly doubled [8][9]. Valuation - The company is expected to enhance its valuation through improved business quality in the bancassurance channel and a recovery in the agency channel [9]. - The reasonable value range is estimated at 43.14 to 47.45 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to a 2024E PEV of 0.37x [9].