2月物价数据点评：CPI与PPI走势背离

Price Index Trends - In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of -0.8%[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of -2.5%[12] - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal production factors and reduced demand in industries like steel and cement[18] Industry-Specific Price Changes - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing prices fell by 6.6%, while black metal smelting and rolling prices dropped by 4.9%[5] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry plummeted by 14.7%, contributing significantly to the PPI decline[5] - Non-metallic mineral products prices decreased by 7.7%, further impacting the PPI negatively[5] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since February 2022, with a rise of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value[18] - Food prices decreased by 0.9%, but the decline was less severe than before, affecting the CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points[24] - Non-food prices increased by 1.1%, contributing about 0.89 percentage points to the CPI rise[24] Market Outlook - The report suggests that CPI may experience fluctuations as the base effect diminishes, but prices could gradually recover as demand stabilizes[18] - The bond market is expected to face volatility due to supply and trading congestion, although a long-term bullish trend remains[18] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, potential over-adjustments in U.S. monetary policy, and underperformance of listed companies[38]