GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company reported a decline in operating income and net profit for 2023, with operating income at 145.7 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, and net profit at 40.8 billion yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year. The dividend payout ratio is 28.41% [1][2] - The company is facing pressure on income due to narrowing interest margins and poor performance in fee-based income, but there is potential for recovery in retail demand and wealth management business in the medium to long term [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Operating income for 2023 was 145.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -3.9%. The projected operating income for 2024 is 138.4 billion yuan, indicating a further decline of 4.98% [2][7] - The net interest income growth rate for 2023 was -5.4%, with a net interest margin of 1.74%, down 8 basis points from the first half of 2023 [1][7] - The non-interest income saw a decline of 11.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in credit card transaction amounts and service fees [1][7] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of December was 1.25%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter. The NPL balance was 47.5 billion yuan [1][7] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 181.27%, up 5.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][7] Business Growth - Retail customer base reached 152 million, with assets under management (AUM) growing by 12.4% to 2.73 trillion yuan. However, personal wealth management fee income declined by 7.5% [1][7] - Corporate financial transaction volume reached 51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [1][7] Future Outlook - The company expects continued pressure on income in the short term due to interest margin compression and slow consumer recovery. However, it anticipates better performance in the medium to long term as retail demand and wealth management activities recover [1][2]