钢铁行业深度报告：基建托底“钢需”，制造业&出口有望成为亮点

Industry Rating - The report gives the steel industry an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7] Core Views - The steel sector's PB valuation is at a low level, with the PB ratio at 0.9x, which is at the 12.75th percentile over the past decade [3] - Steel production has entered a peak plateau, with no significant rebound expected in 2024 [4] - Infrastructure construction is expected to support steel demand, while manufacturing and exports are likely to be bright spots [5] - Global steel demand is projected to increase, with China's steel exports expected to maintain high growth [6] Supply Side - China's crude steel production in 2023 was 10.19 billion tons, roughly the same as 2022, indicating a peak plateau in production [4] - The top 10 steel companies' production accounted for over 50% of the national crude steel output, showing a trend of regional capacity consolidation [4] - The industry's concentration (CR10) has increased from 34.1% in 2016 to 42.1% in 2021, with further consolidation expected [4] Demand Side - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2024, supporting steel demand [45] - Manufacturing demand is recovering, with machinery, automotive, and shipbuilding sectors showing positive trends [49][51][54] - The automotive sector, especially new energy vehicles, is expected to drive steel demand, with a projected increase of 220,000 tons in 2024 [51] - Shipbuilding industry indicators have risen significantly, with steel demand expected to grow by 240,000 tons in 2024 [54] - Home appliance production and exports are increasing, with steel demand expected to grow by 35,000 tons in 2024 [56] Global Steel Demand - Global steel demand is forecasted to be 1.78 billion tons in 2024, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [6] - China's steel exports are expected to maintain high growth, with a projected net export increase of 1.354 million tons in 2024 [59] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies benefiting from downstream manufacturing and export demand growth [7] - Long-term focus on leading companies with scale advantages, advanced technology, and product structure leadership [7]