GF SECURITIES·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with a target price of CNY 29.71 per share for A shares and HKD 19.30 per share for H shares [4]. Core Views - The company reported a 27.1% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023, while the New Business Value (NBV) increased by 19.1% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trend despite challenges [2][19]. - The growth in NBV was driven by both volume and price increases, with a notable performance in the individual insurance and bancassurance channels [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of regulatory changes and market conditions on the company's performance, particularly in the context of product adjustments and sales strategies [11][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Value: Reform and Industry Tailwinds - The company's NBV for 2023 was CNY 10.962 billion, reflecting a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with a comparable growth rate of 30.8% [11][14]. - The NBV margin (NBVM) was 13.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, despite some negative impacts from product adjustments [11][14]. - The quarterly NBV growth rates were 16.6%, 54.9%, 51.9%, and -61.7%, with significant fluctuations due to product retirements and year-end adjustments [11][19]. 2. Insurance: Life and Non-Life Segments - The total premium income from life insurance reached CNY 252.82 billion, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, driven by new policy sales [21][22]. - The new policy sales for 2023 amounted to CNY 82.876 billion, with a growth rate of 2.4% year-on-year, influenced by the company's strategic adjustments in product offerings [22][24]. - The non-life insurance segment saw a total premium of CNY 188.34 billion, growing by 11.4%, with non-auto insurance maintaining strong growth [30][31]. 3. Profit: Decline in Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 27.257 billion, down 27.1% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in the equity market and declines in insurance service income [2][37]. - The quarterly net profit growth rates were +27.4%, -38.7%, -54.3%, and -39.3%, reflecting the volatility in market conditions [37][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be CNY 3.47, CNY 4.66, and CNY 5.43 per share, respectively, with a valuation based on the EV method suggesting a reasonable valuation of CNY 29.71 per share for A shares [2][39].