Soochow Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in lithium prices and the lag in mineral price adjustments have impacted performance, but the positioning of high-quality resources supports future profitability [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 7.297 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 69.75%, with revenue of 40.503 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% [2][9] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability due to adjustments in mineral pricing mechanisms in 2024 [3][17] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the total revenue was 40,503 million yuan, with a net profit of 7,297 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 7,177 million yuan [2][9] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 84.99%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.02%, down 13.55 percentage points [9][23] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a net profit of -800 million yuan, a significant decline of 148.67% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by asset impairment and adjustments in investment income from SQM [10][19] Sales and Production Insights - The sales volume of spodumene concentrate from the Greenbushes mine reached 1.43 million tons in 2023, an increase of 35%, with a total production of 1.522 million tons [3][15] - The report projects that the production capacity of the Greenbushes mine will reach approximately 1.3 million tons in 2024, with a sales guidance of 420,000 to 500,000 tons [3][17] Investment and Future Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2025 and introduces a forecast for 2026, expecting net profits of 3.57 billion, 4.26 billion, and 4.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][23] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 22x, 18x, and 16x, respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][23] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 47.66 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 78.22 billion yuan [6]