财险COR表现依然稳健，人身险NBV迎来超高增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's property and casualty insurance business remains competitive, with a focus on optimizing the structure of auto insurance. The overall profitability is expected to exceed that of smaller insurance companies, especially in the context of ongoing reforms in the auto insurance sector [6][7]. - The report also notes significant growth in the life insurance segment, with new business value (NBV) showing substantial improvement, particularly in the health insurance sector [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company's operating revenue for 2023 is projected at 553,097 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. By 2024, the revenue is expected to reach 604,959 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.4% [6]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 22,773 million yuan, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the previous year. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 14.6% to 26,100 million yuan [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 0.51 yuan, with projections of 0.59 yuan for 2024 and 0.68 yuan for 2025 [6]. Segment Analysis - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a total premium income of 457,203 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The combined ratio stands at 97.6%, indicating a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - In the life insurance segment, the first-year premium income for long-term insurance increased by 37.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in both individual and bank insurance channels [6][11]. - The health insurance segment also saw a remarkable increase, with NBV growing by 182.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand and improved product offerings [11][12]. Valuation - The report provides a valuation range for the company, estimating a reasonable share price between 6.54 and 7.09 yuan based on a segmented valuation approach. The property and casualty insurance business is valued at 1.1x-1.2x 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio, while the life and health insurance segments are valued at 0.45-0.50x 2024E price-to-embedded value (PEV) [7][6].