煤炭业务量增价跌，仍有增长空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Coal Energy, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][13]. Core Views - The coal business volume increased while prices fell, indicating potential for growth despite current challenges [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 192.97 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 7% to 19.53 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company has a stable dividend policy with a proposed cash dividend of 0.442 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.98% [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue was 192.97 billion yuan, down from 220.58 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 201.23 billion yuan for 2024 [1][9]. - Net profit for 2023 was 19.53 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 21.10 billion yuan in 2024 [1][9]. - Coal Business: - In 2023, the company produced 134 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, while coal sales volume was 285 million tons, up 8.4% [3]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 15.9% to 602.04 yuan per ton [3]. - Cost and Margin: - The gross margin for self-produced coal was 49%, down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The total revenue from coal business was 162.68 billion yuan, a decline of 14.8% from the previous year [3]. - Coal Chemical Business: - The coal chemical segment saw a production increase of 6.5% to 6.036 million tons, with sales rising by 9.7% [7]. - Revenue from coal chemical products was 21.39 billion yuan, reflecting a stable cost control and an increase in gross profit [7]. Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that indicate growth potential, including the completion of the Dahuize coal mine and the development of new power generation projects [7]. - The company aims to enhance its coal-electricity-chemical integration strategy, which is expected to provide a competitive edge [7].