Minsheng Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Agricultural Bank (601288.SH) with a current price of 4.23 CNY, corresponding to a 0.6 times price-to-book ratio for 2024 [5][14]. Core Views - The bank demonstrates significant advantages in county-level finance, with solid asset quality and a stable performance in serving the real economy [4][14]. - The bank's revenue and net profit both achieved positive growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 694.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 269.4 billion CNY, up 3.9% year-on-year [13][14]. - The bank's county-level financial business has shown resilience, with county-level revenue growing by 4.3% year-on-year [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Agricultural Bank's total revenue was 694.8 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 0.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 269.4 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 3.9% [13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.78 CNY, with subsequent years expected to be 0.80 CNY in 2025 and 0.83 CNY in 2026 [14][26]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2023, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.33%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous year, indicating a stable asset quality [13][33]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was reported at 304%, showcasing strong risk mitigation capabilities [13][33]. Business Growth - Total assets, total loans, and total deposits increased by 17.5%, 14.4%, and 15.0% year-on-year, respectively, with county-level loans and deposits growing by 19.8% and 14.2% [13][14]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) was recorded at 1.6% at the end of 2023, with a decline of 30 basis points over the year [13][14]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.78 CNY for 2024, 0.80 CNY for 2025, and 0.83 CNY for 2026 [14][26]. - The report anticipates continued strength in county-level financial services, which are expected to support overall revenue growth [14].