2023全年量价齐升，归母净利率小幅下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 624 million, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report highlights that the beer industry is undergoing structural upgrades, and the company is expected to continue benefiting from its "3+N" brand strategy, which focuses on enhancing marketing efforts and product mix [5][6]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.33, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.42, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 12.3% respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Growth: The company reported a total revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The beer business showed strong performance with volume and price increases of 4.8% and 4.1% respectively [4][5]. - Profitability: The net profit margin slightly decreased due to reduced interest income, with the net profit margin for 2023 at 11.6% [5][6]. - Cost Structure: The cost per ton increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,192, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 42.8% due to product mix upgrades [5][6]. - Quarterly Performance: In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 830 million, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. However, it reported a net loss of RMB 20 million due to increased costs and lower prices [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is expected to decrease from 28.9 in 2022 to 18.6 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][5]. - The expected dividend per share remains stable at RMB 0.1 for 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 0.2 by 2025 [4][5].