铝产业链一体布局，深耕主业迈向全球

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Aluminum (601600) [4] Core Views - China Aluminum is a large state-owned enterprise with a fully integrated aluminum industry chain, including bauxite mining, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum production [2][12] - The company reported revenues of 225.07 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 22.65% and a profit increase of 60.23% [3][17] - The report highlights the ongoing supply-demand mismatch in the aluminum market, indicating potential upward pressure on aluminum prices [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Aluminum is the only international aluminum company with a complete industry chain, covering three main sectors: bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, along with sub-industries such as high-purity aluminum and aluminum alloys [2][12] - The company has a strong focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has positively impacted profit margins [24] 2. Industry Supply and Demand - The domestic reliance on imported bauxite is increasing, with 2023 imports reaching 99.32 million tons, highlighting the need for stable raw material supply [3][30] - The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with limited new capacity expected, creating a supply constraint [36] 3. Key Projects and Integration Advantages - The company has significant bauxite reserves and is expanding its overseas operations, particularly in Guinea, which enhances its integrated advantages [3][42] - Upcoming projects, including a 2 million-ton alumina project in Guangxi and a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Qinghai, are expected to boost production and profitability [3][45] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 8.04 billion yuan, 9.67 billion yuan, and 11.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.79, 13.13, and 11.36 [3][48]