资产配置周报：4月关注实际产出能否边际改善

Group 1: Market Strategy - The report recommends a broad index strategy focusing on asset allocation, emphasizing position selection and style judgment, which can accommodate large capital volumes with lower volatility and better liquidity [2][29] - The strategy has been running for 162 trading days, achieving a win rate of 56%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.20%, with a maximum drawdown of -14.30% and an annualized volatility of 13.70% [2][29] Group 2: Industry Recommendations - The report highlights that the A-share market continues to show a trend of strength in Shanghai and weakness in Shenzhen, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.72% [10] - Recommended sectors include oil and petrochemicals, consumer electronics, and public utilities, with a focus on communication and automotive from a policy perspective [33][61] - The report notes that the mechanical equipment, defense, automotive, and oil and petrochemical sectors are at relatively high levels of market congestion, while food and beverage, construction materials, and real estate are at lower levels [49] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report projects that China's actual economic growth will stabilize between 4-5% over the next 1-2 years, with nominal growth expected to be between 6-7% [24][25] - It emphasizes that the actual output may begin to stabilize or improve as April approaches, following a period of weak performance in February [18][24] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is currently favoring bonds over stocks, with a slight decline in yields across various maturities, suggesting a preference for fixed income in the current environment [19][26] - It recommends a strategy of duration and credit quality downshift for bond investments, indicating a favorable window for bond allocation [19]