GF SECURITIES·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a Q4 net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 30% quarter-on-quarter and a significant drop of 213% year-on-year. Revenue for Q4 was 36.7 billion RMB, down 42% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter. The operating cash flow was 6.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 21% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The report highlights that the decline in Q4 performance was primarily due to asset impairment losses of 611 million RMB and an increase in management expenses by 526 million RMB [2]. - The aluminum segment showed a slight increase in aluminum prices, while production decreased slightly due to a reduction policy in Yunnan. The estimated profit for the aluminum segment remained relatively stable [2]. - The alumina segment saw a slight decrease in production but an increase in average prices, leading to stable profitability [2]. - The earnings forecast for the company estimates EPS of 0.46, 0.49, and 0.55 RMB per share for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations and the company's leading position, a PE ratio of 20 times for 2024 is applied, resulting in a fair value of 9.25 RMB per share for A-shares and 6.46 HKD per share for H-shares [2][4]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 225.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 22.7% compared to 2022. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.7 billion RMB, an increase of 60.2% year-on-year [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 361.3 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 60.5% [3]. - The company's asset-liability ratio as of Q4 2023 was 53.3%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points from the end of 2022 [2].