KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company is facing a decline in settlement gross profit levels and is working to navigate through a model transformation. The 2023 annual report indicates a revenue decline and performance pressure, with a focus on ensuring positive cash flow, reducing leverage, improving product and service quality, and maintaining operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 10.26 billion, 11.61 billion, and 12.13 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 0.97, and 1.02. The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 10.5, 9.3, and 8.8 times [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 465.739 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.163 billion, down 46.4%. The operating cash inflow was 3.91 billion, with a basic EPS of 1.03. The settlement gross margin was 15.4%, down 4.4 percentage points [2][3]. - The company reported a decrease in sales area and amount, with 24.66 million square meters sold and 376.12 billion in sales, representing declines of 6.2% and 9.8% respectively. The average land acquisition price increased by 1,602 yuan per square meter [2][3]. - The company’s multi-business development remains stable, with revenue from various segments such as "Wanwuyun" at 33.42 billion (up 10.2%), logistics at 4.18 billion (up 17.2%), long-term rental apartments at 3.46 billion (up 6.8%), and commercial business at 9.11 billion (up 4.6%) [2][3]. Financial Forecast Summary - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a continued decline in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 413.666 billion in 2024, 384.628 billion in 2025, and 357.788 billion in 2026, alongside net profits of 10.263 billion, 11.606 billion, and 12.134 billion respectively [3][6]. - Key financial ratios show a decrease in gross margin from 19.6% in 2022 to 15.2% in 2023, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [3][6].